Despite frantic efforts by the European leaders, it seems certain that US President Donald Trump will pull out of the Iran Deal. French President Emmanuel Macron, who was in Washington this week in an attempt to persuade Mr. Trump to honor the arrangement made by his predecessor in 2015, has said that the United States will most likely back out of it in the next month, due to “domestic reasons.” Just hours before, President Trump called the deal “insane.”
Previously, US president gave his allies in Europe until May 12th to fix the deal, which they apparently failed to do. The last hope for the survival of the agreement signed by the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany lies in the hands of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is scheduled to visit Washington on Friday. Most experts agree that if Macron, AKA the Trump Whisperer has failed, there’s a little chance that Frau Merkel will be successful in changing Mr. Trump’s mind.
The question is, who stands to lose the most if Trump actually goes ahead with his threat?
Iran’s vast reserves of oil and natural gas have been off the market since the introduction of sanctions against that country. In 2015, after the deal was signed, Iran has made every effort to ramp up its production, as oil exports were Tehran’s only source of foreign cash. Currently, it supplies 3.8 million barrels a day to its customers, and if the deal falls through, that supply will dwindle to nothing, causing oil prices to skyrocket and make the current price of $2.79 a gallon look cheap in comparison.
Look at amazing Donald Trump car collection.
Boeing and Airbus
One of the first arrangements Tehran made with foreign companies after the sanctions were deals with Boeing and Airbus for the delivery of new airliners badly needed to modernize aged Iranian fleet. Two companies agreed to deliver new planes in the total value of some $21 billion, which would employ tens of thousands of workers in the United States and Europe. If Trump nixes the deal, those orders will probably be put on hold.
GE, Volkswagen, and Total
These three companies also made lucrative deals with Iran’s government, aimed at modernizing the country’s oil and gas fields and opening car dealerships, something Volkswagen hasn’t done in Iran in the last 17 years. Trump’s decision can jeopardize that.
Airlines and hotel groups
As the news spread that Iran is open for business once more, the demand for air tickets and accommodations in the country went through the roof. Multiple airlines rushed to book slots at Tehran airport, while hotel chains were busy buying properties and renovating. All that demand is in danger of drying up overnight.
By far the biggest loser would be the Iranian government. Their people just got the taste of what life on the outside looks like after decades of struggling, just to have it yanked from underneath them. The economic situation will spiral downward and the obvious target for their anger will be their government, who is already hard-pressed trying to keep dissent at acceptable levels.