Donald Trump violated Iranian nuclear deal, and there will be consequences. Imposing Iran with sanctions once again will provoke a disaster. Maybe not an immediate one, but in the long run it will happen.
The decision to move away from the deal comes from America, or better say, from Trump. Their allies, UK, Germany, and France, stand on the Iranian side, as they do not want for the agreement to be scrapped. The leaders of these European countries are together on the claim that thanks to the deal the world is a safer place. What Donald Trump wants to do is to hurt Iran economically until they are ready to offer more as their part of the deal. If they accept new terms imposed by the US, the economic aid will continue.
When America re-imposes sanctions, Iranian oil industry, and banking system will be immediately affected. Previous sanctions almost destroyed their oil industry, but after the nuclear deal was signed their profits doubled. The US sanctions would downgrade Iran financially to that extent that Europe couldn’t make up for it.
A mini trade war?
What European leaders will try to do in the upcoming months, is to convince the US not to include European companies in sanctions. Or, they could pass laws that would protect European companies, and impose tariffs on US gold. This state of affairs would be regarded as a mini trade war. A small battle which could have a devastating effect on NATO.
At the moment Iran is ready to talk about the deal. But the time they are willing to dedicate to it measures in weeks. After the agreement is scrapped, they will continue to work with enriched uranium. Before the deal was signed this Middle East country intensely worked on components that could be used on creating nuclear weapons. There is fear that if the Iran deal is no more, they could once again start working on their nuclear program.
How sanction regimes leak
If any of the European countries decide to leave the deal in a manner that America did it, they will push Iran towards creating a nuclear arsenal. They would kick nuclear inspectors out of the country, and both US and Europe would lose oversight of their nuclear facilities. But, luckily, at the moment, America is the only signatory that has issues with Iran deal. China, India, South Korea, Turkey, Italy, France, and Japan all buy oil from this country, so they probably will ensure that the agreement stands, at least for them. But disagreement between allies, and especially on a matter like this could have profound consequences.
Missiles are a sticking point
While Europe is working on the issues of Iran nuclear deal, they also have to think about their ballistic missile program. This country remains a crucial factor in the Middle East, and its role in the politics of this region is more important than ever. If they manage to arm those missiles with nuclear warheads, they will immediately become a world power. According to the agreement that is still in power, they will have right to continue nuclear development after 2025. From political and military standpoint this date is around the corner.
The final destination
The strategy that Trump is using is relying on the fact that even if deal falters, he will have enough time to bring Europeans to his side and to convince Iranians that the new agreement is necessary and that the financial troubles they will have are not worthy of their resistance.
Regarding the date of the expiration of the deal (2025) all, but Iran, agree that the ban on their nuclear program should be permanent. But the path Donald Trump is leading these negotiations is not the right one. Iran could immediately respond to his threats by continuing its nuclear program stating that they needed to because of US actions. At the moment, Iran deal is on the road to disaster.