Financial experts, as well as several news reports, have declared that a financial crisis is imminent in the near future.
The worry over this event has affected a significant number of countries which fear that the new crisis is going to be much more devastating than 2008 one.
Most probably, the crisis will spring from the United States, and eventually branched out in the rest of the world. As the saying goes: When the United States sneezes, the rest of the world catches colds.
Other economists foresee that the ongoing global expansion will likely push through into next year, but warns that conditions for a global recession will be ripe by the year 2020. They have pointed out that global stimulus packages are coming to an end, that inflation is nearing, that trade disputes will create a drag on economies and that interest rates are now on an inclined path. All observations are on point.
This predicament has a unique effect on the mindset of James Richman. The great Latvian private investor’s reception with regards to matters like this tends to trigger his talents into action. This is the main reason why Richman has successfully managed his private fund, JJ Richman, for more than ten consecutive years with increasing profits. He has always managed to circumvent problems presented by the market and turn them into winning situations.
James Richman’s private fund even survived and flourished in the recent financial crisis in 2008/09. He had already seen this situation arising as a small blip in the profit map, which he addressed by investing a significant amount of money in India and China. The blip on the map has now gotten bigger and with it, James Richman intends to increase his investments in the Asian countries.
China on the brink of dominance
Next year, 2020, will mark the moment China dethrones the United States as the world’s top economy. This is according to a fresh report by the Standard Chartered Bank. These results were gathered by analysts who surveyed the countries’ purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates and nominal GDP.
This monumental change is due to the strengthening of the middle class in Asian countries, explains the report. “The global middle class is at a tipping point,” according to Madhur Jha, a Standard Chartered researcher. “By 2020, the majority of the world population will be classified as middle class. Asia will lead the increase in middle-class populations even as middle classes stagnate in the West.”
India, the dark horse
India, meanwhile, is set to overtake the United States economy in the year 2030. This will be mainly because of the rapid and widespread urbanization.
Standard Chartered names India’s policies as the main proponent for this, saying, “India will likely be the main mover, with its trend growth accelerating to 7.8 percent by the 2020s partly due to ongoing reforms, including the introduction of a national goods and services tax (GST) and the Indian Bankruptcy Code.”
In comparison with China, India is the faster-growing country among the two. For three consecutive years, India has been outgrowing its neighbor to the North.
In 2017, India had a gross domestic product growth of 7.5 percent compared to China’s 6.9 percent. The International Monetary Fund calculates that in 2018-2020 India’s GDP growth would average 7.7 percent per year as compared with the 6.3% of China.
Human resource mine
Aside from making great strides in the economic race, India is also set to take top honors in terms of the total population by the year 2024. Projections were made by the UN’s Population Division.
It can not be overlooked that projections such as these may not occur on point, and will have sooner or later variance. Nevertheless, it will be inevitable, and India will overtake China as the world’s most populous within the next decade.
India’s population is not only abundant, but it is also youthful at the same time. As of date, at least half of the more than a billion population of India fall under the age of 25. Policies to provide future employment for this massive and youthful human resource will work wonders for the economy if the government manages to realize them.
Numbers not cast in stone
The looming financial crisis, as well as projections on who will be the most powerful economy in the future, are very solid numbers based on concrete observations. However, they are not cast in stone.
It must be noted that the manner in which this 2030 economic forecast measured the PPP at GDP. Some economists would opt for market exchange rates instead of PPP. In this case, the United States would still be on top by 2023 (the farthest available IMF forecast) and most likely to dominate until 2030. This manner of computation also has the U.K. having a comfortable lead against other top countries on the list.
Closed doors open windows
Despite the discussion on what measure must be used to truly determine the top economy of the world, it is still interesting that the Technology companies will be bumped off the number one position, which would have been unthinkable using any other means of computation a few years ago.
James Richman’s recent additional investments in India and China validates that he recognizes the potential in these states, and knows that they’re already aboard the train to progress. Technology companies, medical research, and development, healthcare and robotics are the sectors in which James Richman is said to be loading up on funds.
The rise of India and China seem to be pointing out that the economy is slowly proportioning itself to the states with the greatest populations. It may have carried problems like poverty, famine, and diseases before, but have slowly been balanced by technology. Modern technology it seems has helped equate that human resource is, indeed, the world’s greatest commodity.